
Demographic change: How Germany will develop by 2035
The population began to decline in 2002 because there were increasingly more deaths than births. in 2011, the tide turned again: immigration flows offset the excess deaths and caused the population to rise to 83 million by 2017. However, according to the study, positive population growth is only expected to continue until 2024. After that, the population will shrink by just under one percent compared to 2017, to 82.3 million people.
However, this does not mean that the population in all German regions will decline by 2035. A closer look reveals that the trend varies greatly depending on the city and district. As a general rule, more and more people are moving to cities, while the population in rural areas is declining. This is particularly true for rural regions in eastern Germany. Leipzig can expect the largest population growth at 16.5 percent. The Elbe-Elster district in Brandenburg, on the other hand, will see the sharpest decline in population at 24.7 percent. Of course, there are exceptions: many rural regions in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg can expect population growth, while the population in cities such as Gelsenkirchen is declining.
What does this mean for the topic of "housing"? Will real estate prices automatically rise in regions with population growth, while they fall in regions with population decline? There is no blanket answer to this question. After all, the individual amenities and supply situation in the region also play a major role here. Cities that still have a high vacancy rate can cope better with population growth than cities that already have low vacancy rates. "At the same time, construction activity will not suddenly come to a halt in shrinking regions," predicts Fabian Böttcher, head of the CIMA Institute.
This is partly due to the aging population. "The changes in the composition of the population are almost more important than the growth or decline in the total population," explains Böttcher. According to this, many regions will soon have fewer and fewer people of working age, but more and more pensioners. Issues such as barrier-free living will therefore become increasingly important for older people in terms of their living situation. This is why more special residential complexes for senior citizens will be built, especially in regions with a rapidly aging population.
Barrier-free conversion is therefore often a good option for property owners. Not only does it increase their own comfort in old age, but it can also lead to a significant increase in value if the property is sold.
Would you like to know how barrier-free conversion could affect the value of your property? Contact us now. We will be happy to advise you.
Photo: Berlin Institute